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16 November 2011
Kyrgyzstan’s new political leadership seeks compromise
BISHKEK – Kyrgyz President-elect Almazbek Atambayev has made overtures to indicate that one of his priorities as president will be to help heal the north-south rift in Kyrgyzstan, and analysts predict that geographic unrest will fade into the distance during Atambayev’s tenure.
Specifically, Atambayev has said that he would like one of his opponents from the presidential election – Adahan Madumarov or Kamchibek Tashiyev – to be prime minister. Both Madumarov and Tashiyev are southerners. Should either of those men move up to that post, it would mean the country’s top two officeholders would represent north and south.
“When protests broke out in the south the day after the election, they started discussing balanced regional representation, in which the president would be from the north and the prime minister from the south. If one of Atambayev’s main opponents became prime minister, this could be presented to the constituents as the result of negotiations,” said Medet Tulegenov, a political scientist at the American University of Central Asia. “As the Russian saying goes, ‘It’s better to have a little bird in your hands than a big one up in the sky.’”
Madumarov and Tashiyev finished a distant second and third in the October 30 election. Atambayev polled 63% of the vote. Madumarov and Tashiyev received 14.76% and 14.33%, respectively.
Northern president + southern prime minister?
Atambayev has said that, despite some early challenges to the official election results, he believes his opponents can assume new roles in his government peacefully.
The most important decision will be appointing a prime minister, Tulegenov said, because the prime minister is the second most powerful person in government.
“The prime minister will address major economic issues, since he has the freedom to manoeuvre,” Tulegenov said. “The deputy prime minister is not as independent, and he cannot address issues without consulting the prime minister first.”
Kyrgyzstan has a long history of economically and politically rooted tensions between the country’s south and north.
If Atambayev is committed to resolving north-south tensions, having a right-hand man from the south would be one of the more visible ways to do that, Tulegenov said.
The probability is quite high that Tashiyev and Madumarov would accept an offer to join the government, Tulegenov said. However, he was not certain that either man would become prime minister.
The likeliest prime minister is Omurbek Babanov, the first deputy prime minister who replaced Atambayev when he was running for president, while the least likely is the relatively unpopular Madumarov, who does not even have a seat in parliament.
“The drama of who will take which position could continue right up until the actual appointment,” he said, adding, “Politics (in Kyrgyzstan) is very hard to predict.”
Preparations for a new government
Meanwhile, efforts to install new officials are proceeding.
The Kyrgyz parliament will form a new ruling coalition and a new cabinet of ministers, Parliament Speaker Akhmadbek Keldibekov announced November 15, according to 24.kg. Madumarov, a member of the Butun Kyrgyzstan Party, November 9 called on his supporters to end protests.
Giving Madumarov a high position could benefit the country, said Umut Kushbakova, spokeswoman for Butun Kyrgyzstan. Tashiyev, on the other hand, a member of the Ata-Jurt party, has openly expressed his desire to bring together the two geographic regions of Kyrgyzstan. One of the clearest examples of his commitment came when he refused to join a November 4 protest against the election results.
“I will not allow anyone to divide our nation into regions, because stability and order in Kyrgyzstan are much more important than the presidency,” he said.
Calm will prevail analysts predict
“The north-south question is important because politicians can inflame it,” Tulegenov said. “As a whole, it’s important to maintain a balance, which one can do not only by appointments to high posts. It’s just more difficult to show that a balanced personnel policy is under way if you’re not using high-level appointments to prove it. As a whole, it’d be good to demonstrate that the political group in power is regionally balanced without having to put on that kind of a show, but in reality, for the time being, doing so is practically impossible.”
“In reality, there’s no regional schism in society, or at least it’s not as pronounced as politicians would have you believe,” said another American University in Central Asia political scientist, Azamat Temirkulov. “In order to defuse the existing tension, you have to conduct an intelligent personnel policy. But that doesn’t mean you must appoint a representative of the ‘south;’ doing that, to the contrary, intensifies the division. It’s time to stop focusing attention on this and to make appointments based on qualifications.”
“Even if neither Madumarov nor Tashiyev became prime minister,” said Bishkek University of the Humanities history instructor Almaz Riskeldy, “their presence in high positions is important, because it guarantees as a whole the equal apportioning of (government) positions to representatives of the south and north.”
Equal representation of northerners and southerners in the government could permit it to pay attention to problems of both regions and calm social tension, he added.
“Just what the new government will do is hard to predict,” Riskeldy said. “But just calling for peacefulness and co-operation between regions could be quite fruitful.”
Tabyldy Akerov, director of the Institute of Ethnology and historian, sees no causes for further unrest. “Tashiyev and Atambayev could have already held talks on the fate of the ruling coalition and the role of Tashiyev in the future government,” he added.
Nur Omarov, chairman of the Association of Political Scientists of Kyrgyzstan, also predicted the situation will remain peaceful, as “Atambayev as president satisfies both the north and the south, as well as the main political groups of Kyrgyzstan.”
