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15 November 2011
An important vote, but tensions and economic woes remain «Economist»
Economist.com - LAST October Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary elections were heralded as the first in post-Soviet Central Asia in which the result was not known in advance. The presidential election on October 30th this year could be the second. This month’s vote will also continue the transformation of a country of 5.5m people into a parliamentary republic—unprecedented in Central Asia, where a presidential strongmen have run the show for decades with the firmest of hands.
Kyrgyzstan is voting a year and a half after the overthrow of its previous leader, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, in a popular movement in April 2010. The uprising left more than 80 dead and around 1,500 injured. The vote also marks the end of the constitutional reforms introduced by the interim government, led by Roza Otunbayeva, after Mr Bakiyev’s overthrow. Ms Otunbayeva is, remarkably for a Central Asian leader, keeping her promise to step down as president.
You could hardly accuse the vote of being stage-managed. A staggering 86 presidential hopefuls initially put their names forward as candidates. In the end, a total of 19 are standing for office.
The smart money is on Almazbek Atambayev, the 55-year-old leader of the Social Democratic Party and, until recently, the nation’s prime minister. But the probability of a second round is high, as no candidate is likely to gain the necessary 50% in the first. Mr Atambayev headed the government in 2007 under Mr Bakiyev. But he later joined the opposition and was one of the leaders of the 2010 movement that overthrew Mr Bakiyev amid accusations of nepotism and corruption.
Kyrgyzstan is the only country in Central Asia to host both a Russian and an American air base, and Mr Atambayev is known to be close to the Russian government (he met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow on October 10th). America is worried that Russia could press him to close the Manas Air Base, through which more than 50,000 American troops travel each month into Afghanistan.
But it will be two domestic issues that will determine who wins this month’s vote. First, Kyrgyzstan is still recovering from ethnic clashes between Kyrgyz and Uzbeks in the southern part of the country in June 2010 that left over 400 people dead (mainly Uzbeks), almost 2,000 people injured, and many houses destroyed. Although peace has returned, deep mistrust between the two groups endures. Some claim the interim government, of which Mr Atambayev was a member, did not do enough to prevent the violence that followed Mr Bakiyev’s overthrow. Regardless of whether the new president comes from the north or the south, he will have to make efforts to bridge the divide in order to prevent further violence.
All candidates have pledged to work for national unity. One has even proposed making the mere mention of the term “north-south” a crime of high treason punishable by a long jail term.
The second task for the new president will be to improve the standard of living. Neither the “Tulip Revolution” in 2005 nor the overthrow of Mr Bakiyev last year improved the lot of ordinary people. Unemployment, corruption, inflation and human-rights violations still blight people’s lives, just as they did before. Many Kyrgyzstanis just want a little stability (and a job) in order to get on with life. If a new president cannot help with these problems, voters might be forgiven for wondering what the point of the uprisings was, or indeed of the election—be it presidential or parliamentary.
